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| Hillary Clinton |
The key word for 2016 poll-watchers this week has been "tightening" as a series of national and state polls have shown Donald Trump drawing nearer to Hillary Clinton.
But look at the numbers closer and any tightening looks more like a mini Clinton swoon, than a mini Trump boom.
Comparing polls from the same organizations over
recent weeks shows that Clinton's numbers are almost universally down,
in some cases by noteworthy amounts. But Trump's numbers have not seen
equal increases. In fact, in some cases his numbers are down as well,
just not as much as Clinton's.
Consider the four-way national presidential
polls from Monmouth University, featuring Libertarian candidate Gary
Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein alongside Clinton and Trump.
On August 8, that poll showed Clinton at 50 percent, Trump at 37 percent and all other candidates an undecided at 13 percent.
Monmouth's national poll later in August, the
29th, showed Clinton had dropped 4 points to 46 percent, but Trump's
number had only grown by 2 points to 39 percent.
The other half of Clinton's drop went elsewhere
-Johnson/Stein/Other. That share of the vote went from 13 percent to 15
percent.
But again, Johnson/Stein/Other gained in the poll and by 4 points,
that's fairly significant movement in a month's time and it was movement
away from the Clinton and, to a lesser extent, Trump.
And the movement could be seen on the state
level as well. A Marquette University Law School poll showed a
tightening race in Wisconsin. A 9-point Clinton in early August had
dropped to a 5-point Clinton lead at the month's end. But again both
Clinton and Trump lost in that poll as well.
Welcome to the 2016 election where many voters are none-to-pleased
with their choices and looking for options. And that could mean a very
good year for third-party candidates.
A merge of data from the NBC News/Wall Street
Journal July and August polls shows Johnson and Stein are pulling about
15 percent of the vote in the four-way race with Johnson winning 10 percent and
Stein capturing 5 percent.
But as the homestretch the campaign nears, it's
unclear how firm those Johnson/Stein voters are. In 2012, Johnson and
Stein were both on the ballot and when all their votes were added
together they earned about 1.5 percent of the popular vote.
Registered voters who favor Johnson and Stein have a pretty specific profile.
Johnson and Stein supporters are young. For both
candidates more than half of their supporters, 51 percent, are 34 years
of age or younger. They are not particularly diverse. More than 80
percent are white. And supporters of both Johnson and Stein give much
higher "positive feeling" ratings to Bernie Sanders than they do to
Clinton or Trump.
Sanders plans to hit the road in support of
Hillary Clinton on Monday for the stretch run. That doesn't mean Clinton
will win those voters, but it looks like she going to make a play for
them - and at least try to end her late summer mini swoon.
Culled from: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/hillary-s-late-summer-swoon-doesn-t-help-trump-n642616
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